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AQUEDUCT RACE COURSE
SATURDAY, December 7, 2024
Today’s Race Card/Horsecellany
There are ten races today, seven of them routes…I have always thought that routes are easier to predict than sprints: the hardest sprints are those 5f turf sprints (whoever gets out front first often wins).
There are four graded stakes races: The Go For Wand, Grade III, Race 4, The Remsen, Grade II Race 7, The Demoiselle Grade II Race 8 and The Cigar Mile, Grade II, Race 9.
Why Aqueduct today? First of all for a change it won’t be raining…
It’s either that or Los Al Thoroughbreds for the next week or so…I will return there Saturday and Sunday for my Cypress, CA subscribers…
Anyhow we have the likes of Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher who have entries here today. Jockeys include Davis, Carmouche, Geroux, Johnny V., and Rosario to name a few. Flavien Prat and other “big boys” will be here today…
It will be “cold” about 40 degrees.
Do horses like cold weather?
Horses actually like temperatures in the range of 18 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
If I were an equine athlete taken to the airport for a flight to Dubai for The Dubai World Cup, purse $30.5 million in Meydan, April 5, when the average temperature will be above 90 degrees, I would rear and defecate, rear and defecate….
I have been to Oceanport NJ, Monmouth Race Course in the summer, and it is warm but the ocean is nearby and it is not uncomfortable at least to me. They nonetheless immediately hose down each equine athlete after the race…
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Post Time today is 8:15 am PST, 11:15 am EST
FOR AMUSEMENT ONLY
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ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: Treaty Obligation (Race 10)
PENULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: not available in free analysis
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*****
NOTE: The Success of the Trifecta Key Box Bet, Redux
Lately I wager only one or two races per day. I use the trifecta key box bet in races where it make the most sense, where I “know” who the winner will be.
Last Sunday Gina Romantica was my “Ultimate Pick of the Day.” So, I “knew” she would win (she didn’t) at the time I wagered.
I bet $18 to make Gina Romantica the Key horse in the box, and I followed up with four other horses in the other aspect of the trifecta key box: they were the other four horses I had picked in the enhanced analysis—- Sacred Wish, Ag Bullet, Kehoe Beach and Mouffy.
Actually of course I am hoping that Gina Romantica does not win, that instead she comes in second or third, with two of my other horses coming in with her for a bigger payoff. However, the beauty of the bet is that if she does win, based on typical trifecta payoffs, I will get my money ($18) back or maybe a little more if “longshots” come in behind her.
Lo and behold, Gina Romantica places, with 12/1 longshot Sacred Wish winning, and Ag Bullet as the show horse. The payout was $87.45, a net profit for the bet of $69.45.
I wish I had discovered this form of wagering before last year! The exacta key box works similarly and I think that, like the trifecta key box, it may be the most sensible bet in racing. I don’t ever want to influence your wallet- just passing along some information. I cannot be the only person aware of this form of wager…
PEACE
NOTE: turf racing at Aqueduct is suspended from December to the spring each year, a safety procedure to protect those 1000 pound athletes with ankles thinner than mine.
*****
RACES 4-7
RACE 4
The Go For Wand
Grade III, one mile, main track ($200000)
All raced at RD and each entry has won at RD. Just three entries have won at graded stakes level: Shidabhuti, Comparative and Occult.
Tizzy in the Sky the well-rested mare won four of her last ten routes, and the Pletcher entry turns back a furlong, the rail will not be a problem (see Oct. 2023 race), Pletcher/Prat is as good as it gets on paper
Occult this Chad Brown entry hit the board in eleven of her last dozen routes and won three of them, and she won and placed respectively in two trips at RD, she turns back a furlong, and is well-rested, the Brown/Irad connection is none too shabby on paper as well
Shidabhuti this Chad Brown entry won two of three trips at one mile, both wins coming here last year, with the elite Davis in the irons, Brown excels in graded stakes and Brown/Davis $$$$+ here
RACE 5
Very closely graded
All raced at RD and seven entries won at RD. Two entries have never won any dirt sprint: Kaaterskill and Nolita. Four entries are unrested.
Darn That Song she won 20% of her trips at RD, that being 25 trips, the rested mare had a rough start last time out so I discounted that result, Ferraro excels in the sprint and the mare likes the shallow post
Al’s Ruby very well-rested, she won comfortably at RD last time out, here with Rosario aboard, this is her second race after layoff, she looms large
Snappin Buttons she placed in three sprints and won the other won, here at RD last March, she raced a week ago but (i) this is her second race after layoff and (ii) she enjoys that five pound weight allowance of excellent apprentice Martinez
RACE 6
Two raced at RD- only Tower Twenty Two hit the board at RD. Altogether five horses raced with just Tower Twenty Two having hit the board in a dirt sprint.
Tower Twenty Two she hit the board in both of her sprints, each at RD, with Carmouche in charge, experience counts, especially when favorable
Unwoke a slow start marred her debut at RD here, Abreu kills it with his entry’s second start as a maiden, and Abreu/Prat $$$$ here
Leonora’s Secret she turns back 1,650 feet and comes off the grass, a circuitous route spoiled that turf route, the filly has a top rider for her second try
RACE 7
The Remsen
Grade II, one and one-eighth miles, main track ($250000)
No entry raced at RD. Three challengers have won a dirt route: Aviator Gui Studlydoright and Gun Trader.
No entry has won at graded stakes level: Studlydoritght placed at graded stakes level in a sprint.
Studlydoright he placed at one mile and he won at one mile, last time out, with Perez in the irons, that win last time out came at stakes level, Perez knows him very well
Keewaydin he won comfortably last time out at 7f, with this top rider in the irons, the Chad Brown entry has favorable pedigree for the stretch out, Brown/Davis $$$$+ here
Aviator Gui this Chad Brown entry won his sole trip at RD on the main and hit the board at RD+ on the grass last time out, and Franco produced both successes, well-rested
*****
MAY THE HORSE BE WITH YOU!
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