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SANTA ANITA
FALL MEET
SATURDAY, October 3, 2026
Today’s Race Card/Horsecellany
There are ten races today, five on the main, five on the turf.
Notable jockeys include: Hernandez, Rosario, Rispoli absent, Jaramillo, Berrios, Kimura, Smith and Patrick Husbands, Canadian Jockey Hall of Fame, nearly a 20% career win rate.
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ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: Thermal (Race 2)
PENULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: not available in free analysis
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QUESTION: How important is “surface specialization” for optimization of a thoroughbred’s performance?
Answer: “Thoroughbred horses generally perform better and show more consistent form when they stick to the specific surface (dirt, turf, syn) that matches their biomechanics, pedigree and running style. Abruptly switching surfaces— like when a turf horse suddenly is called to run off-turf— affects grip, stride mechanics and energy output, often leading to a drop in performance.” (courtesy AI)
I have always presumed this. I knew for example that Irish horses trained on the turf are selected based on the size of their feet, bigger is better for turf. In any event when a horse is suddenly switching surfaces an alarm goes off in my handicapping suite.
A surface change based on poor performance on the current surface may be a shade less concerning.
*****
RACES 2-3, 6-8
RACE 2
The Chillingworth
Grade III, six and one-half furlongs, main track ($100000)
Five raced at RD and four won. Rosie Jeeks never won a sprint.
No entry has won at graded stakes level: two won at stakes level on dirt: Thermal and Paradise City.
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Thermal lightly raced, she hit the board in all five sprints, winning a heady three of them, she will thrive from the rail, and Rosario rides again (Sadler/Rosario $$$$$$ here)
Toaster this Baffert entry won both of her sprints, courtesy Hernandez, she is lightly raced, rested
Paradise City won her sole trip at RD, and hit the board in three of four sprints, Husbands produced her most recent wins
RACE 3
The Oak Leaf
Grade II, one and one-sixteenth miles, main track ($200000)
No entry raced at RD and no entry raced a route. Only Holmby has won at graded stakes level.
Quattro Passi this Baffert entry won comfortably at 6f last time out, courtesy The Inimitable Mike Smith, she is lightly raced and rested, and Baffert/Smith $$$$ here
Holmby won two of three sprints and hit the board at 7f last time out, though she faded, Gonzalez tries again
Deluge comes off the grass with favorable lineage for this trip, and she won that sprint last time out courtesy the elite Hernandez, well-rested
*****
RACE 6
Speakeasy Stakes
Five furlongs, turf course ($100000)
Two raced at RD and won: Omaha Spirit and Off in the Corner. Arctic Wolf won at 5 ½ f.
This is a match race among five entries with Tashie placing at 6f last time out defeating the others.
Omaha Spirit won at 5 ½ f at stakes level last time out, and I like that turf workout on the 26th, the elite Hernandez takes over
Arctic Wolf hit the board in two of three relevant sprints, and he turns back 990 feet, Sisterson likes the turf sprint, Jaramillo enhances his chances
Off in the Corner turns back 1,980 feet, and won at RD in his debut, Rosario produced that debut win
RACE 7
The American Pharoah [sic] Stakes
Grade I, one and one-sixteenth miles, main track ($300000)
No entry raced at RD, and not entry won any dirt route.
Only Hughes has won at graded stakes level (sprint). Net Par won a stakes sprint.
The race is obviously named for Baffert’s Triple Crown Winner, and so Baffert enters three…
Hughes the colt entered by Baffert “only” won all three of his sprints, including a convincing win at 7 f last time out, courtesy Hernandez, he has favorable lineage for the extra 990 feet, and he had plenty left in the tank for all three sprints
Domus another Baffert entry won comfortably at 5 ½ f, and hit the board at 7f last time out, new rider
Dang Son won at one mile on grass, hit the board at 7f last time out, at Grade I level, courtesy Jaramillo, he has favorable pedigree for the route but the rail is not his friend
RACE 8
Three raced at RD and Check’s On the Way won; Disko Tribute hit the board at RD.
Only four entries have won a turf sprint.
This is a match race among Speed of Elon, Ballyvaughn Gig and Courtside Action defeated those two at 5f.
Ballyvaughn Gig hit the board in half of his turf sprints, winning once at 5f, he has very favorable ancestry for the stretch out, Frey rides again
Rodrigoknows won three of his eight dirt races, and he turns back 1,320 feet, he is lightly raced, rested and the elite Jaramillo takes over
Check’s On the Way hit the board in two of five recent grass sprints, Leparoux takes over
*****
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